
KasadaIQ - Considerations for Defenders
Explore the Q2 2026 threat intelligence landscape: AI-accelerated fraud, credential markets, and adversary economics — and how our 2026 predictions are tracking
Q2 2026 Update
An AI model beat a commercial licensing system in under five hours, for $3.88. KasadaIQ's Q2 2026 report breaks down what's driving that cost down — and what security and fraud teams need to do about it.

KasadaIQ - Considerations for Defenders

KasadaIQ - Considerations for Defenders

KasadaIQ - Considerations for Defenders

KasadaIQ - Considerations for Defenders

KasadaIQ - Considerations for Defenders
In Q3 2026, a cluster of criminal marketplaces collapsed and tracked listings still rose 52% as sellers rebuilt elsewhere. Identity data exposed in 40+ incidents fed a market where every input to a KYC check is for sale, and AI lowered the cost of each stage of the attack. The holiday season will start well before Black Friday.

Explore the Q2 2026 threat intelligence landscape: AI-accelerated fraud, credential markets, and adversary economics — and how our 2026 predictions are tracking
11.7M+
stolen accounts for sale on criminal marketplaces, from 6K sellers
20.9K+
checkouts completed by bots instead of real shoppers, across 32+ brands
11.3M+
site visits from just 2 AI companies scraping content, in a single month
Of 27 predictions KasadaIQ tracked for 2026, nine moved this quarter and none were refuted, clustering around AI adoption, credential markets, and bot economics. The clearest signal: an AI model cracked a commercial licensing system in under five hours, for $3.88.
AI moved the tooling layer, not the population, motivation and rationalization are unchanged, only capability has shifted.
94% of operators rent capability rather than build it, and a newcomer can be fully operational for $400–$500.
World Cup fraud tracked the ticketing calendar, not the match schedule, the same tradecraft just redirects to the next big event.